Paper reading: Multigenerational persistence: Evidence from 146 years of administrative data

#paper information

Title: Multigenerational persistence: Evidence from 146 years of administrative data Author: Jørgen Modalsli (Statistics Norway) Year: 2017 (Journal of Human Resources) Link: Related Links

Research background

This paper explores a core question: Does class reproduction (persistence) not only occur between parents and children, but spans more generations? **

In other words, is your economic status today not only affected by your father, but also by your grandfather, or even your great-grandfather? Past studies have often been limited by data, looking at only two generations (father-son). The few studies that look at multiple generations typically have small samples or are limited to a specific city.

This study draws on Norway’s very strong administrative data, concatenating census data from 1865 to 2011. This allowed the authors to observe 167,411 family lineages, covering the occupation and income information of three generations of grandfather, father and son.

Research methods

1. Data Samples (Four Samples)

The study constructed samples from four different periods to observe changes in different historical stages:

Sample A: Grandfather (1865) → Father (1900) → Son (1910)
Sample B: Grandfather (1865) → Father (1910) → Son (1960)
Sample C: Grandfather (1910) → Father (1960) → Son (1980)
Sample D: Grandfather (1960) → Father (1980) → Son (2011)

2. Occupational classification

Occupations are divided into four broad categories:

White-collar
Farmer
Manual skilled
Manual unskilled

3. Metrics

Odds Ratios: Measures the impact of the grandfather’s occupation on the chance of his grandson entering a specific occupation while controlling for the father’s occupation.
Altham Statistic: A comprehensive liquidity indicator.
Income Rank: Use income ranking to validate findings from occupational data in later samples for which income data are available.

Main findings

1. Grandfather’s influence is significant and lasting

The study found that grandfather’s occupation was significantly predictive of grandchildren in all four periods, even after controlling for father’s occupation.

The coefficient size is approximately 1/3 of the father’s influence.
This means that if two people’s fathers are workers, but one person’s grandfather is a white-collar worker, then the probability of this person becoming a white-collar worker will be significantly higher.

2. Specific professions are more replicable

White-collar workers and Farmers show the strongest multi-generational replicability.
Replication among the blue-collar class (technical and non-technical) is relatively weak and sometimes not significant.
The high replicability of farmers is not surprising (inherited land), but the high replicability of white-collar workers hints at some kind of “elite replication” phenomenon.

3. Institutional changes fail to eliminate multi-generational impacts

Norway has experienced tremendous social change during these 150 years, transforming from a poor agricultural society into a modern country with a comprehensive welfare system and free education.

While the degree of replication among white-collar workers has slightly declined over time (showing increased mobility), multi-generational influence remains.
This shows that the welfare system and the spread of education alone cannot completely cut off the long-term transmission of family advantages.

4. Income data confirms career analysis

In the sample with income data (Sample C & D), the grandfather’s income ranking also has a significant positive impact on the grandson’s income ranking. This confirms that the findings in the occupational data are not simply errors in occupational classification.

Mechanism discussion: Is it “love after meeting” or “family genes”?

In order to explore how this generation-skipping effect occurs, the author conducted two interesting tests:

1. Geographical Distance

If the grandfather’s influence on his grandson comes from “direct teaching” or “introduction through personal connections”, then living far away should have less influence.

Result: Grandsons who move away from their grandfather are indeed slightly less influenced by their grandfather, but the difference is very small. Even after moving far away, my grandfather’s influence was still evident.

2. Time of Death

If the grandfather dies before the grandson is born, or dies during the grandson’s childhood, direct interaction is theoretically impossible.

Result: There is little correlation** between the grandfather’s survival and his influence on his grandson.

Conclusion: This implies that the main mechanism of multi-generational class replication may not come from direct interpersonal interaction (Personal Contact), but from deeper and potential Latent Family Characteristics, which may include genetic talents, family culture, values, or a broader family social network.

My understanding

After reading this paper, I had several deep feelings, which really overturned some of our established impressions of “depending on dad” - it turns out that many people are actually “depending on dad”, and this kind of dependence is more invisible and stubborn than we imagined.

First of all, what surprised me the most was the “1/3 law”. Even taking your father’s career into account, your grandfather’s influence is still 1/3 as great as your father’s! This means that social mobility is much slower than when we look at pure father-son data. Imagine that a family has to climb from the bottom to the top, or fall from the top to the bottom. The speed of “return to the mean” is actually very slow. It’s like a flywheel with inertia. Once it starts spinning (whether for good or bad), it takes generations to stop.

Secondly, this study severely defeats the optimistic idea that the welfare state can solve everything. Norway is already recognized as one of the most equal countries in the world, with free education and good social welfare. But even in this environment, who your grandfather is is still important. This tells us that what families can give their children is far more than just money or schooling, but also a more abstract “human capital”—perhaps a certain way of thinking, the ability to plan for the future, or the self-confidence of “I know I belong here.” It is difficult for the government to redistribute these things through policies.

Finally, what I find most interesting is the discovery about the “mechanism”. It turns out that you don’t need to have met your grandfather, or even live near him, for his influence to still be passed on to you. This sounds a bit mysterious, but it makes sense if you think about it carefully. This shows that the transfer of family advantages is a “systematic” project. Maybe your grandfather taught your father certain values, and your father educated you in this way; or it may be some kind of hidden genetic advantage. This made me think that each of us is actually carrying the history of our family as we move forward. Part of our achievements are really not the result of our own efforts, but the result of the accumulation of many generations.

In summary, this paper makes me feel more pessimistic about “class replication”, but also more awe-inspiring. It reminds us to be more empathetic when looking at the success or failure of others, because what we see is often just the tip of the iceberg, and beneath the water is a century-long family accumulation.

Reading date: 2025-06-08 Notes organized: Dylan Chiang